Within hours of when I posted yesterday’s essay on the decline of tokenmaxxing, I saw further converging evidence, such as this:
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat
The price to rent an Nvidia H200 just collapsed from $7/hr to $4/hr in three weeks. A -40% drop in the cost of the single most strategic asset in tech. When the underlying commodity that powers your entire thesis loses 40% of its value in a month, that usually means one of two
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat
🚨 The AI ROI numbers are starting to look very ugly. Even under "best case" assumptions — assuming zero costs, just revenue against capex — the Financial Times calculated the implied return on hyperscaler AI investment from 2025 to 2030. Only one of them clears positive.
7:43 PM · May 28, 2026 · 877K Views
278 Replies · 573 Reposts · 2.69K Likes
and
Financial Times@FT
Amazon scraps AI leaderboard to stop workers chasing usage scores
ft.trib.al
Amazon scraps AI leaderboard to stop workers chasing usage scores
8:54 PM · May 28, 2026 · 41.5K Views
28 Replies · 61 Reposts · 293 Likes
Furthermore I saw bunch of other people saying similar things noting the apparent decline of toxenmaxxing, such as Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn in his newsletter:
So ok, if that’s true, what’s next?
Here are two takes. First my own:
And second, AI researcher and benchmark creator Lisan al Gaib, who fired back in a reply to me with a totally different, far more optimistic set of predictions, spelled out in admirable detail:
Within minutes, the contrasting pair of predictions become a meme:
We agreed to check back in 12 months to see how these predictions are going.
Stay tuned. And feel free to drop a comment below.