BURKOV@burkov
OpenAI's market share drops below 50% for the first time. Google is quickly eating into it. The pure LLM business doesn't have stickiness. Regular people don't see a difference between ChatGPT and Gemini, and because they already have their entire online ecosystem with Google,
7:23 PM · Jun 16, 2026 · 6.03K Views
17 Replies · 5 Reposts · 52 Likes
As I predicted here in January 2024, with everybody building the same thing, there can be no moat:
That’s been catching to OpenAI ever since. The numbers don’t lie.
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And it’s not just the dwindling market share. Microsoft was for a long time OpenAI’s biggest backer, but they have increasingly backing away.
Today they apparently just distanced themselves even further:
NIK@ns123abc
BREAKING: Microsoft exploring DeepSeek over OpenAI and Anthropic as Copilot Cowork moves to usage-based pricing “We have users who do hundreds of tasks a week… the consequence is the costs can go very high...” Jevons paradox
5:22 PM · Jun 16, 2026 · 160K Views
100 Replies · 118 Reposts · 1.32K Likes
When your biggest investor starts openly contemplating outsourcing your main product to China, it is what they call in business a strong negative signal.
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Sometimes of course bad things come in threes.
The third bad thing is that Ed Zitron just reported that OpenAI is burning money even faster than people thought:
Ed Zitron@edzitron
Exclusive: I have seen OpenAI's audited financials for 2024 and 2025. In 2025, OpenAI had $13.07 billion in revenue and $34 billion in costs. $867 million of its revenue came from SoftBank, and $303 million came from Microsoft.
wheresyoured.at
Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
3:59 AM · Jun 16, 2026 · 1.04M Views
117 Replies · 539 Reposts · 2.97K Likes
You can’t multiply your losses every year by 8x (or even close) for very long.
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To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:
The Economist@TheEconomist
The American government’s primary aim may not have been to control foreign access to frontier AI models. Instead, it appears to have used export controls as a convenient way to target Anthropic econ.st/4uBDO0m Photo: Bloomberg via Getty Images
10:00 PM · Jun 14, 2026 · 49.3K Views
17 Replies · 52 Reposts · 175 Likes
But if Washington doesn’t succeed in killing of Anthropic, and instead actually inadvertently helps them, as I joked here…
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus
My government tried to ban my AI, and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.
9:14 PM · Jun 14, 2026 · 5.7K Views
14 Replies · 7 Reposts · 64 Likes
.. then I’ll stand by this set of predictions from two weeks ago…
… except to say that another dark horse bidder is Elon. Wouldn’t that be an interesting twist?